CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-09-08T01:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-09-08T01:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33243/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and as a partial halo in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption centered near N14W20 which deflects NW as it erupts based on SDO/AIA 304 imagery. The eruption begins around 2024-09-08T00:00Z. A faint EUV wave is visible traveling N/NE of the source location despite the filament material deflecting NW as seen in SDO/AIA 193 and GOES SUVI 284. This eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI 304. Characterized by two consecutive enhancements in magnetic field components, the first at 2024-09-11T14:18Z and the second at 2024-09-11T15:40Z with Enhancements in solar wind speed (approx. 343 km/s to approx. 390 km/s), temperature (approx. 26kK to approx. 70 kK), and density (approx. 4 p/cc to approx. 24 p/cc). These enhancements are possibly due to the arrival of CME: 2024-09-08T01:36Z, which arrived at STEREO A at 2024-09-10T21:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-09-11T14:18Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-11T05:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
Issued: 2024 Sep 08 1256 UTC #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 40908 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Sep 2024, 1255UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Sep 2024 10CM FLUX: 222 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Sep 2024 10CM FLUX: 222 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Sep 2024 10CM FLUX: 222 / AP: 007 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours beside de number of complex regions visible on the solar disc, with several C-class flares. The strongest was an C7.2 flare from NOAA active region (AR) 3808. The most magnetically complex active regions currently on the disk are NOAA AR 3806 AR 3811, AR 3813 and AR 3815 (beta-gamma). Solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with the possibility of an M-class flare and a chance for isolated X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in LASCO/C2 coronagraph images at 00:36 UTC on September 8. This CME is associated with the filament eruption located at 15 degrees North and 23 degrees West. The projected speed is estimated to be about 600 km/s in the northwest direction. This eruption is believed to be Earth-directed and is currently under analysis. A preliminary estimate suggests an arrival time of September 10.Lead Time: 46.80 hour(s)
Difference: 9.30 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-09-09T15:30Z
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